A tariff war, White House policy reversals, and severe storms slam America’s beleaguered farmers.
It’s planting time in America’s rural heartland, those states in the Midwest, the Great Plains, and the Mid-South Delta regions that make up the nation’s “breadbasket.” But this year the usual spring optimism that fuels farmers is subdued by the increasingly extreme weather, compounded by inflation, uncertainty around federal government farm support policies and most profoundly — by a new world of reciprocal tariffs that threatens billions in US agriculture exports.
The weather report: severe weather driven by climate change
For the past several years, the ag production season in Mid-America has been swamped by torrential rains accompanied by more frequent and more powerful tornadoes and monster hail storms.
These catastrophic weather events damaging crops and farm equipment have been followed by severe droughts during the summer growing season. In the Bootheel area of Missouri where my family owns farmland, from June to mid-July 2022 we recorded not one drop of moisture — a first, according to local farmers. In the fall, for the past three years, record-low levels of the Mississippi River, the primary transportation channel for the mid-country’s agricultural production, have delayed shipping at harvest, adding extra costs.
This year — after relatively “normal” weather — multiple severe storm systems hit during spring planting time which began in March, bringing torrential rainfall, hail, and record numbers of tornadoes. Some early planted corn was drowned and had to be re-planted. And flooded fields forced farmers to delay planting, which usually means lower yields.
New tariffs have slowed sales of key ag exports.
A new layer of financial storm clouds on the American agricultural horizon threatens to add that proverbial last straw to the already formidable pile of obstacles now facing producers: the sweeping tariffs applied to global trade. As 20% percent of all U.S. agricultural products are exported, the financial stakes are enormous.
A new layer of financial storm clouds on the American agricultural horizon threatens to add that proverbial last straw to the already formidable pile of obstacles now facing producers: the sweeping tariffs applied to global trade.
These trade wars threaten more than $21 billion worth of soybeans and corn produced last year for Mexico, Canada, and China, the top three American markets. That’s almost half of the total $49 billion worth of both US commodities that were exported last year.
American farmers are bracing for a repeat of 2018–2019, when trade wars with China, the largest buyer of US agricultural products, cut its purchases of soybeans and corn, cratering prices for agricultural commodities. Those prices have not recovered and now hover at four-year lows.
In addition, overseas markets for US products have dropped as the Chinese have turned to other providers, notably Argentina and Brazil. After many years in which the US was the leading trade partner, Brazil provided 69% of China’s soybean imports while the U.S. share shrank to 25% in 2024.
The forecast for this year’s ag export business is even more dire. Tariffs on imports from America’s largest trade partners, Canada and Mexico, are currently undecided — which means that their policies on imports from the US are also up in the air. New Chinese tariffs of 15% on corn and 10% on soybeans add prohibitive costs to importing American products, resulting in a virtual embargo. Those three countries buy nearly half of all US ag exports. (In 2024, Mexico became the top destination, with China sinking to the number three spot after Canada.) While China purchased some US soybeans earlier this year in anticipation of trade disputes. But purchases of all American ag commodities have since paused. Instead, the United States sells more soybeans to China, by value, than any other single product. Last year, that amounted to more than 27 million metric tons, worth $12.8 billion. A drop in this trade is bad news for American farmers and good news for the nation ready to step in: Brazil.
More problems at play: no farm bill, DOGE cuts to USDA
There are other pressures this year.
At the direction of DOGE (headed by billionaire Elon Musk) elimination of USAID food programs put another $2 billion worth of American agricultural exports in limbo. Also, a program that funded $1 billion in local food provided to schools has been cut. And as of today, plans are to close over 100 USDA offices and cut an estimated 10%–20% of the USDA’s 100,000 personnel.
Meanwhile, the cost of farm inputs — seeds, fertilizer, diesel fuel, farm equipment — has risen, driven by inflation and now, by tariffs. For example, 80% of potash, a crucial fertilizer for corn, comes from Canada and now carries a tariff of 10% on top of its usual price.
Farming in the US has never been more precarious.
Meanwhile, there has been no new farm bill since 2018; a new one is typically passed by Congress every five years — which means there is no new calibration of economic support for farmers to reflect current conditions. The 2018 bill has simply been extended since 2023 on a year-to-year basis through 2025.
The bottom line: A looming “bust” in US ag economy
Farming in the US has never been more precarious. Family farm bankruptcies increased by 55% last year, compared to 2023, and the number of bankruptcies in 2025 has already surpassed those by the same time last year, according to a new report by Bloomberg Law. The report notes, “Unpredictable tariffs, immigration overhauls, federal program cuts, and frozen agriculture department funding are now part of the discussions farmers are having as they seek financial help.” The last time farm bankruptcy filings rose was in 2019, during the previous trade war with China. Eventually, the previous Trump administration sent farmers more than $21 billion in Market Facilitation Program payments to help cover export losses.
But funds that were used to bail out farmers then may not be available this time. The coffers of the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), a wholly owned U.S. government corporation, used to finance farm price and income support, are depleted. At stake are dozens of commodity programs, commodity export credit guarantees, and agricultural export subsidies. The beauty of CCC relief is that it can make payments quickly and provide financial support to America’s producers and farmers immediately. The catch: The CCC account is currently depleted due to the large payouts of recent years. And Congress has to authorize funds for the CCC to make payments.
Biden-era payments offer limited immediate support
To date this year, the only federal support so far has come from a Biden-era program, the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, part of the American Relief Act of 2025, which was passed by Congress last December. The program authorized $10 billion for ECAP payments to help offset losses that growers incurred during the 2024 crop year; these funds are being dispersed now.
Many other Biden-era agricultural-related programs have been frozen, as the current administration seeks to eliminate them while recouping funds already appropriated by Congress. These include the Rural Energy for American Program which promised to repay farmers and ranchers 50% of the costs of environmentally friendly improvements, such as switching irrigation motors from diesel to electric power. Those who have fronted the investment and submitted their invoices for the 50% rebate are now being told that those reimbursements are frozen for the time being. This comes at a time when producers are taking on the annual hefty loans to put spring crops in the ground.
Where’s the Trump administration relief?
So far, comments on this dire situation by the administration and its allies have been vague. Senator Jon Husted (R-OH), addressing the Ohio Farmers Bureau, noted that retaliatory tariffs on corn and soybeans would present yet another financial burden for Ohio farmers, who lost market share of international corn and soybean exports to other countries during Trump’s first U.S.-China trade war. Ohio soybean exports have never recovered, sinking 60% from 2019 to 2023. As to any tariff-driven relief from the federal government, he said “I think the president is going to help work through those things. I think it remains to be seen what those impacts are. And once we see what those impacts are, then we’ll talk with the president about how to respond.”
You’d expect a more detailed, forceful statement — even from a Republican senator — in a state where one in eight workers is engaged in agriculture, in a business sector worth $124 billion annually, and where the state’s top crops are corn and soybeans.
“Trump Dollars” for farmers, 2025–26
Given the growing impact of weather conditions on yields and even more uncertain tariff policies that have roiled export markets, the price tag to keep Mid-American farms in business is likely to be multiples of the $21 billion shelled out to farmers by the CCC in 2019. That amount was estimated to account for one-third of all farm income, given the collapsed export markets.
How much emergency supplementary funding to farmers will be needed is unknown, as is any date by which it might be delivered.
The numbers are big
The output of America’s farms contributed $222.3 billion of this sum — about 0.8 percent of U.S. GDP. But the cascading impact of the farm troubles is much larger. Combined with food and other value-added related industries that rely on agriculture, the sector contributed roughly $1.537 trillion to US GDP) in 2023, a 5.5% share, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What happens next?
The immediate issue is how the tariff wars with China, Mexico, and Canada play out in the next few weeks. China is making noises about not buying any US agricultural products while Mexico and Canada are waiting for details of a North American trade pact that is (again) to be revised. The timetable for Congress to appropriate funding for the CCC and to negotiate an updated farm bill is uncertain. How much emergency supplementary funding to farmers will be needed is unknown, as is any date by which it might be delivered. The consequences of DOGE cuts to support USDA services and frozen funding (even if temporary) will bite deep into farming practices. Will inflation rise, adding to costs? And there’s the weather — as always, unpredictable. Stay tuned.
Climate & Capital’s story of America’s agricultural economy is a developing one.
John Howell is Finance Editor for Climate & Capital Media and a partner in his family agri-business firm in Missouri.
