The Biden administration has called for 100 percent sustainable aviation fuel adoption by 2050. The level today: less than half of 1 percent.
Government incentives, bulk purchases by airline giants and support from corporations with jet-setting employees are attempting to rev up the market for sustainable aviation fuel market, which has suffered from a lack of supply.
The latest support from Washington arrived Aug. 16 with a Federal Aviation Administration award of $244.5 million to 22 projects for cleaner fuel production, supply chains and availability.
Sales of $460 million for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in 2022 are estimated to reach $17.8 billion by 2031, a 61 percent annual rate of compound growth, according to a recent report by Coherent Market Insights.
The question is whether these new fuels can scale quickly enough for the aviation industry to emit net zero carbon in 15 years.
A grand challenge
The Biden administration’s SAF Grand Challenge, launched three years ago, calls for 100 percent sustainable aviation fuels by 2050.
The level today: less than half of 1 percent.
“The challenge is formidable,” said Zia Abdullah, laboratory program manager for the Bioenergy Technologies Office at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). His work supports the SAF Grand Challenge. “You have to double production every year.”
Meanwhile, the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization and hundreds of airlines have committed to net zero by 2050.
The ferocious buildup of air fuel alternatives involves at least 140 projects, with 100 producers in 31 countries.
The ferocious buildup of air fuel alternatives involves at least 140 projects, with 100 producers in 31 countries, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Sustainable fuels cost more than typical kerosene, however, which challenges airlines operating on thin margins.
To close the gap, the U.S. provides some incentives. The European Union mandates 70 percent SAF in its planes by 2050. Experts agree that more policies will inject support into an uneven market.
For now, scores of businesses are stepping in to help close the gap.
The case for sustainable jet fuels
Fossil-free fuels would slash the lifecycle emissions of a flight by up to 80 percent, according to proponents. They address multiple problems:
- Emissions from flying far outpace those of every other mode of transportation.
- In just 121 years since the Wright brothers flew at Kitty Hawk, air travel has caused 4 percent of the planet’s global warming. Each year, flying contributes 2.5 percent of planet-warming emissions, according to a recent study.
- Carbon pollution from aviation would cease altogether if a 90 percent carbon-neutral fuel became standard by 2050 — or if air traffic slowed by just 2.5 percent each year, researchers noted in the journal Environmental Research Letters in 2021.
What is sustainable aviation fuel?
The SAF market is a gumbo. Companies are brewing fuels from scores of ingredients, including algae, corn, garbage, slaughterhouse fats and even waste CO2.
These products blend with traditional fuels at levels of between 10 percent to 50 percent.
Air travel will always have a carbon footprint, but the type of carbon matters. Fossil fuels, released from underground after hundreds of millions of years, add carbon to the atmosphere that may linger for thousands of years.
Air travel will always have a carbon footprint, but the type of carbon matters.
“Modern” or biogenic carbon, on the other hand, gets absorbed by plants and trees. It already existed in the atmosphere, circulating through the lifecycles of plants and animals.
To be commercially viable, sustainable fuels have to be a “drop-in,” molecularly identical to fossil-based fuels, and meet the standards of the American Society for Testing and Materials.
The low-hanging fruit often leans upon existing industries, such as Big Corn for feedstocks. And fuel producers are piggybacking on existing petroleum refineries, with their ready equipment and supply chains to cook up and sell fuel to airlines.
The business case
Airlines, from American to DHL Express to Virgin, are mobilizing to encourage growth.
United Airlines was the first in the U.S. to purchase SAF for international flights. On July 31, it began buying sustainable fuel from Neste for Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, following airports in Los Angeles, San Francisco, London and Amsterdam.
The $200 million United Airlines Venture Fund counts more than 20 partners, including GE Aerospace and Google, backing early stage fuel makers.
Beyond the aviation industry, many companies with frequent-flier workforces are purchasing “book and claim” SAF certificates to reduce Scope 3 emissions from travel. In April the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance (SABA)announced a $200 million, five-year bundle of deals to purchase nearly 50 million gallons of SAF certificates. It included AstraZeneca, Deloitte, Morgan Stanley, Netflix and others.
Airlines not only need business travelers, but they also invite corporate support to encourage SAF development and eventually make it more affordable.
Airlines not only need business travelers, but they also invite corporate support to encourage SAF development and eventually make it more affordable.
“Without the investment from corporates, it would be very difficult for JetBlue (which accounts for 5 percent of the domestic air travel market) to procure SAF at the volumes we are,” said Isabella Horstmann, senior analyst of sustainability and ESG at JetBlue Airways. It has flown SAF blends since 2020.
“It’s a very risky business,” NREL’s Abdullah said. “If a corporate client can come in and sign a large offtake agreement, a multi-year agreement, and be willing to pay more than the market debt price, that helps the startups a lot.”
This article originally appeared on Trellis Network (formerly GreenBiz) as part of our partnership with GreenBiz Group, a media and events company that accelerates the just transition to a clean economy.
